f_NL Local Non-Gaussianity

The ΛCDM Tension

Planck measures f_NL local = -0.9 +/- 5.1 (PR4: -0.1 +/- 5.0): a null three orders of magnitude above single-field inflation's 0.01 target. The parameter built to divide the primordial model space currently falsifies nothing, and if the truth sits at the single-field level no planned experiment will ever see it. The headline certifies the early universe was very Gaussian without explaining why.

The ΛCDM Assumption That Creates It

ΛCDM delegates the prediction to an unspecified inflaton sector: single-field gives 0.01, multi-field gives nearly anything, so the model has no committed number, only a family of targets spanning the measurable range. Whatever is measured, some variant claims it, which is the opposite of a test.

SCT Resolution: M2 (Gaussianity by Counting)

SCT replaces the hot-dense-center with a cascade of order 10⁴ collision events (P36, P37, P38), and the Gaussianity of the primordial field becomes bookkeeping: summing that many independent deposits invokes the central limit theorem, leaving residual non-Gaussianity of order 1/√N_coll, so |f_NL| of about 10⁻². The universe is very Gaussian because it was built by very many events, and slightly non-Gaussian because the number was finite. The value is structural: no potential to tune, no model family to span, one number locked to the same N_coll that fixes the spectral tilt n_s = 1 - 1/L through the cascade depth.

The prediction lands inside the Planck null and below near-term sensitivity, which SCT shares with single-field inflation; the difference is falsifiability from above. Inflation's broader family absorbs any detection; SCT cannot. A measured |f_NL| above 5 forces N_coll below 25, while the observed tilt requires the cascade to be thousands of events deep: the two numbers cannot both survive, so any unambiguous detection at current sensitivity kills the framework outright. Meanwhile the companion signatures stay testable: mild scale dependence of the residual non-Gaussianity from the stage structure, suppressed isocurvature, and no tensor background above r of 10⁻⁵.

There is no need to invoke an inflaton, and no refuge if the data ever disagree.

Falsifier

The registered kill is two-sided. Detection of |f_NL| above 5 at 3σ or better contradicts the cascade event count demanded by n_s and falsifies SCT's primordial sector. Conversely, if CMB-S4, SPHEREx, and 21-cm surveys eventually reach sensitivity near 10⁻² and find f_NL exactly zero, the finite-count residual the cascade must leave is absent and the counting argument fails.

Premise Grounding

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