Ω_b from BBN vs CMB

The baryon density of the universe is measured twice, by physics separated by 400,000 years, and the two answers have drifted apart. Big bang nucleosynthesis fixes Omega_b through the primordial deuterium abundance: D/H measured in pristine quasar absorption systems (2.527 +/- 0.030 x 10^-5) combined with nuclear reaction rates yields the baryon density at three minutes. The CMB fixes it independently through the acoustic peak heights at recombination: Planck gives Omega_b h^2 = 0.02237 +/- 0.00015. When the LUNA experiment delivered its precision measurement of the deuterium-burning rate d(p,gamma)3He in 2020, the BBN-inferred value shifted to Omega_b h^2 near 0.02195 +/- 0.00022, opening a gap of about 1.5 to 2 sigma against the CMB, in a quantity that had been advertised as cosmology's cleanest concordance.

The tension is mild in sigma but structurally pointed: both inferences are precision metrology with shrinking error bars, the nuclear input is now laboratory-measured rather than theoretically extrapolated, and the discrepancy moves in a definite direction, with BBN preferring fewer baryons than the CMB. Within ΛCDM there is no freedom: the same Omega_b must serve both epochs, so the gap must resolve into remaining nuclear-rate systematics (the competing theoretical rate calculations differ from LUNA at the relevant energies), deuterium measurement subtleties, or, if it hardens, new physics between BBN and recombination.

The standing is a concordance under strain at the precision frontier: not yet a crisis, but the flagship cross-check of early-universe cosmology no longer agrees as comfortably as the textbooks state, and forthcoming 30-meter-class D/H measurements plus CMB-S4 will push both error bars below the present gap.

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